Gold: What’s driving the 'spectacular' rush in 2025? A CBA economist explains

Rate cuts, tariffs and industrial demand fuel precious metals rally. 

20 October 2025

Commonwealth Bank office
  • Interest rate cuts in the US have made gold and other metals more attractive compared to bonds or cash.
  • New tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump triggered a sharp fall in share markets, pushing investors towards metals.
  • Industrial demand is giving silver, platinum and palladium an extra boost — especially as recession fears ease. 

Gold, silver, platinum and palladium have all surged in 2025, with gold now trading above $US4,200/oz and silver above $US52/oz.

The metals rally isn’t just playing out on trading screens — it’s also visible in cities across Australia. Bullion dealers have reported long lines of customers looking to buy physical gold and silver, with some stores seeing demand double in recent weeks.

Why is this happening?

According to Vivek Dhar, CBA Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics, the rally in precious metals has been driven by falling interest rates, geopolitical tensions and resilient industrial demand.

The US Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September, making non-interest-bearing assets like gold more attractive. Markets now expect nearly 100 basis points of cuts by mid-2026 — more than CBA’s forecast of 75bps by March.

“The surge in precious metals since the beginning of the year has been nothing short of spectacular”, Dhar explains.

“One key driving factor has been the shift in monetary policy that has made precious metals a more compelling alternative to bonds and the US dollar.” 

“But the real catalyst was President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, which triggered a sharp equity selloff and pushed investors towards metals as a safe haven.”

Chart showing the price trends for gold, silver, platinum and palladium since December 2024 Precious metals prices have soared in 2025.

Industrial metals outperform gold

While gold has grabbed headlines, industrial metals are quietly outperforming. Silver, platinum and palladium — which are used in electronics, solar panels and catalytic converters — have seen even sharper gains.

Silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has helped it outpace gold, while platinum and palladium are benefiting from a rebound in global auto production and the ongoing transition to cleaner transport technologies.

“With recession risks easing, demand for these metals is expected to stay strong going forward,” explained Dhar.

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