Household spending climbs again in October, but inflation clouds the recovery

The RBA is closely watching the impact of price rises ahead of upcoming interest rate decisions.

12 November 2025

For sale sign outside a residential property. Picture: AAP Image/Diego Fedele

Key highlights

  • The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index rose 0.6% in October.
  • Transport, Motor Vehicles and Hospitality were the top spending categories in the month.
  • Persistent spending likely to keep the RBA watching closely as rate decisions loom.

Australian households kept up their spending streak in October, with the CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index climbing 0.6 per cent, matching September’s lift and marking the thirteenth straight month of growth.

Spending rose in 11 of 12 categories, led by Transport (+1.2 per cent ), Motor Vehicle (1.0 per cent) and Hospitality (+1.0 per cent) categories, as Australians continued to spend on filling up the car, looking after their car, eating at restaurants, and ordering take away and food delivery.

Is inflation driving the boost in spending?

While household spending appears better, inflation is likely distorting the picture.

“The recent strength in spending is likely being driven partially by price increases rather than purely higher consumption volumes,” said Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics at CBA.

“That’s important because it complicates how we interpret household resilience and how the Reserve Bank of Australia reads the economy as it weighs future interest rate decisions.”

Categories seeing the sharpest annual gains - Utilities (+13.8%), Communications and Digital (+10.1%), and Hospitality (9.1%), are also among those most affected by inflation and the scaling back of government support on energy costs.

Where are Australians spending more this year?

Changes to energy rebates have boosted utility spending over the year, while higher prices and evolving consumer habits are driving growth in digital categories, such as streaming services, online gaming, and mobile data.

While these patterns suggest households are adjusting to inflation by prioritising essential and at-home entertainment spending, Hospitality has also witnessed strong spending growth driven by food delivery and eating out.

HSI data by state October 2025

Which states and groups are leading the way?

Spending growth has varied across regions, as Queensland (+7.9 per cent) and Western Australia (+7.5 per cent) posted the strongest annual gains, while Tasmania has seen the weakest growth at +3.1 per cent.

What does this mean for the months ahead?

Despite steady spending, inflation and interest rate uncertainty remain major headwinds for the outlook for household spending.

CBA economists forecast that there will be no further rate cuts in this cycle, and the cash rate will be held at 3.60 per cent. However, consumers could soon rein in discretionary spending if real income growth fails to keep up with prices and savings ratios are wanted to be maintained.

“Household resilience has been remarkable,” Allen said. “But sustained inflationary pressure could impact consumer choices going forward.”

Selected categories: October data

Food & beverage: annual growth rate ▲ to 3.6%.

▲ Convenience stores, bakeries, butchers, supermarkets, liquor stores.

▼ Weight loss services, vending machines, health food stores, food box subscriptions, international cuisine supermarkets.

Hospitality: annual growth rate ▲ to 9.1%.

▲ Food delivery services, restaurants, fast food outlets, pubs, taverns & bars, takeaway food.

▼ Event hire & planning, function centres, breweries & wineries, cafes.

Household goods: annual growth ▲ to 5.2%.

▲ Online marketplaces, clothing stores, discount department stores, hardware stores.

▼ Online deals, tobacconists, novelty stores, fashion accessories, floor coverings.

Recreation: annual growth ▼ to 5.4%.

▲ Online travel bookings, tourist attractions, gyms, sporting goods stores, accommodation.

▼ Circuses (-87.9%), ticketing services (-23.8%), performing arts venues, cruise lines, airlines.

Motor vehicles: annual growth ▼ to 6.2%.

▲ Car washes, windscreen repairs, detailing services. Modest growth: battery services, tyre retailing, car dealers.

▼ Smash repairs.

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