IMF readies new report card on Australian and global economies

New unemployment data reported this week will add a local lens to the IMF’s updated outlook for Australia and the global economy.

19 January 2026

Factory worker. Credit: Adobe

Key points

  • The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook Update on Monday, refreshing its view on Australia and the global economy.
  • In its last update (October), the IMF tipped global growth to ease to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies growing 1.5%.
  • Australia's labour force report is due Thursday, after unemployment held at 4.3% in November while employment fell over the month.

The health of Australia's economy is set to be given a global reality check, as the domestic unemployment rate comes under the spotlight.

The International Monetary Fund will on Monday release the latest round of its World Economic Outlook Update, which contains forecasts for major economies and a state of play for global finances.

The body's previous report released in October forecast global growth slowing to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and further downwards to 3.1 per cent in 2026. Advanced economies were also projected to grow by just 1.5 per cent.

Economic resilience in the face of uncertainty

The release of the report follows global uncertainty in financial markets, following US intervention in Venezuela and tensions in Iran.

Commonwealth Bank Head of FX International and Geo Economics Joseph Capurso said the global economy has remained resilient. “Despite a long list of uncertainties, the fundamentals of the global economy are sound,” he said.

“Inflation and interest rates are down materially. US taxes on personal and corporate incomes have been cut. The rapid rise of AI offers the prospect of an investment boom in the near term and large gains in productivity in the long term."

Local economic update with Australian jobs data

While the focus will be global on Monday, Thursday will see the economic forecasts move closer to home with the release of Australian unemployment data for the last month of 2025.

November's job figures saw the unemployment rate remain steady at 4.3 per cent, staying at the same rate for five of the past six months. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed unemployed numbers fell during the month by 2000 people, while the number of workers in jobs dropped by 21,000.

Flat finish for Wall Street

Investors on Wall Street meanwhile seem non-plussed by President Donald Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest or indications that he is yet to settle on a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Stocks ended nearly flat on Friday with all three major indexes posting losses for the week as fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 83.11 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 49,359.33, the S&P 500 lost 4.46 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 6,940.01 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 14.63 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 23,515.39. Australian share futures dipped 6.0 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 8,592.

The S&P/ASX200 rose 42.2 points on Friday, up 0.48 per cent.

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