Shifting US strategy is reshaping global risk: CBA economists

US shifts add pressure to global stability.

Recent US actions in Venezuela, Greenland and Iran are adding to geopolitical uncertainty and heightening risks for global energy markets, according to analysis from CBA Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Madison Cartwright.

Cartwright noted the Trump administration is adopting a sharper, winner-takes-all approach to global competition, particularly in its dealings with China.

“These actions show Washington is willing to go-it-alone and test long‑standing norms,” Cartwright said. “That’s making allies nervous and raising the level of geopolitical risk impacting global markets.”

Below are key points from the analysis:

Venezuela: political turmoil, limited oil benefit.

The US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro will have only a small impact on global oil supply because much of the country’s oil is costly to extract. While the United States has since agreed to buy Venezuelan oil, the political situation remains uncertain, with power struggles likely inside the ruling party.

Greenland: alliance strain and critical minerals

In Greenland, the Trump Administration’s push for access to critical minerals, and its earlier threats of military action and tariffs, has unsettled European leaders. Although a negotiated compromise appears more likely, the episode has weakened perceptions of US reliability and may accelerate Europe’s efforts to build greater strategic autonomy.

Iran: high economic pressure and ongoing flashpoints

Large protests, deep economic strain and ongoing US sanctions mean Iran remains a persistent source of volatility. CBA economists say a fullscale conflict is unlikely, but even targeted US intervention could threaten key maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, where one fifth of global oil trade travels.

“There are several scenarios, from domestic unrest to disruptions at vital shipping routes, that could quickly affect global energy markets,” Cartwright said.

Elevated uncertainty ahead

All three situations carry unresolved risks that could flare rapidly as the United States continues to rethink its alliances and strategic priorities.

Cartwright warns that, even without major escalation, the pattern of sudden policy shifts and pressure tactics will continue to affect global markets. For US partners, especially those in Europe and Asia, the message is that long-held assumptions about American support are less certain, prompting greater focus on regional security, diversification and resilience.

Read the full report here.