Australia's agriculture sector has hit a $100 billion target four years early, but values are set to fall amid trade tensions and a hot, dry start to summer.
Strong demand for Australian beef and a record winter crop have pushed the agriculture sector's value over $100 billion, but tricky trade and climate conditions mean the record peak will be short-lived.
The gross value of agricultural production is expected to reach a record high of $101.4 billion in 2025-26, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
The industry has had a long-held ambition of reaching $100 billion by 2030.
The early peak was largely driven by higher beef production to meet strong export demand and the second-largest winter crop on record, the bureau's March quarter report said.
Lower livestock prices on the horizon
"This forecast gives Australians 100 billion reasons to thank our farmers, whose hard work, resilience and skill is helping power our national economy," Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said on Tuesday.
But the forecast warned of a 6 per cent fall to $95 billion in 2026-27, due to the likelihood of lower livestock prices and a more modest crop.
Beef export market conditions were expected to become less favourable after China imposed 55 per cent tariffs on beef imports over certain quotas in January.
The Trump administration also announced new tariffs in February, which could hit some Australian produce.
Hot, dry conditions a challenge
While decent rainfall and mild spring temperatures helped growers deliver a bumper winter crop, summer harvests were hit by a hot and dry January and a lack of irrigation water availability, the report said.
The government would continue to support farmers, Collins said.
"As we celebrate this significant milestone, we also reaffirm our commitment to supporting our farmers and producers during difficult conditions because we will always have their back."
In the medium-term, the combined value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry production was projected to reach $102 billion over the five years to 2030-31, the ABARES report said.
Some conservationists, scientists and farmers have questioned the focus on agriculture's economic gains, particularly as the government considers its national food security strategy.
A 2025 CSIRO report on the state of Australia's food system warned emphasising the economics of agriculture has "crowded out" the pursuit of sustainability, equity, food safety and health goals.
National Farmers' Federation president Hamish McIntyre said the $100 billion target was never about a headline number.
"It is underpinned by a detailed road map that places farmer wellbeing, sustainability and natural capital alongside productivity and profitability," McIntyre said.
He said the record value was a landmark moment for the industry. "It proves Australian agriculture can compete with the best in the world."
