Oil prices swing amid Middle East conflict

Oil markets are bracing for volatility this week as traders weigh whether strikes on Iran escalate into disruptions to exports and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

2 March 2026

a F-35C Lightning preparing to launch from the USS Abraham Lincoln. Credit: US Navy/ AP

Key points

  • If Iran’s roughly 1.6 million barrels a day of exports are disrupted, Chinese buyers may bid up global supplies to replace them.
  • A limited conflict could lift crude $US5 to $US10 on fear alone, but a wider war affecting Hormuz could push prices past $US90 and lift US petrol well above $US3 a gallon.

Oil markets are set to see price swings this week as the impact from the US and Israeli strikes on oil supplies from the Middle East begins to emerge.

Oil prices have surged more than 8 per cent to their ‌highest levels in months as the conflict in the stepped up with renewed attacks, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.

Brent crude futures struck a high of $US82.37 a barrel and was ‌at $US79.34, up $US6.47, ‌or ⁠8.88 per cent, by 10:05 AEDT on Monday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude jumped $US5.36, or 8 per cent, to $US72.38 a barrel after touching a high of $US75.33 earlier.

Graph showing the price of Brent Crude oil and US petrol prices. Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis

Oil tankers damaged

At least three tankers were damaged off ‌the Gulf coast and one seafarer was killed as Iranian retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran exposed ships to collateral damage, shipping sources and officials said.

Meanwhile the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which was more than analysts had been expecting.

The countries boosting output include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

Strait of Hormuz a critical chokepoint

Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day - about 20 per cent of the world's oil - are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the world's most critical oil chokepoint, according to Rystad Energy.

Tankers travelling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran.

Iran had temporarily shut down parts of the strait in mid-February for what it said was a military drill. Further disruptions to that shipping channel could lead to lower supply and higher prices for oil.

Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran's exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices.

Scenarios before the latest conflict with Iran foresaw a quick price spike that fades if the attacks didn't affect oil shipping and infrastructure, such as Iranian pipelines and its Kharg island terminal. 

However, there would be a bigger price spike and longer-lasting impact if oil infrastructure or supplies were interrupted because of the disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

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