Why is the price of beef going up?

Australian households are feeling the strain as supermarket bills climb, but few price hikes at the shops can compare to the cost of beef.

“You may be wondering why the price of beef in my weekly shop is going up,” said CommBank Agribusiness Economist Dennis Voznesenski. “It’s not so much grounded in what’s happening in Australia. More so it’s what’s happening overseas and especially in America.”

Export demand and global dynamics

“The US has a multi-decade low cattle herd and their import options are constrained,” said Voznesenski. 

“Not only are they struggling to get more beef from the North American market, but due to the trade war, they also face steep tariffs on Brazilian beef.”

US President Donald Trump recently rolled back reciprocal tariffs on a range of imported food products, including beef, coffee, bananas and tomatoes, in response to American consumers’ complaints about high cost of living pressures. But while some Brazilian products, like orange juice, have benefitted from the rollback, the White House has kept a 40 per cent tariff on Brazilian imports. 

With Brazilian beef imports under steep tariffs, America has bought heavily from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay to meet its beef needs, Voznesenski said.

Because Australia has an export-oriented agricultural industry, when export demand rises, it pushes local prices higher,” Voznesenski added.

The silver lining

While higher prices at the checkout are tough for consumers, the price rise is supporting the Australian cattle industry.

In 2024 Australia became the second largest beef exporter in the world, according to Meat & Livestock Australia. The US became Australia’s largest beef export market, taking 29 per cent of total export volumes.  

Last year Australian beef export volumes reached a total of 1.34 million tonnes, a 24 per cent rise compared to the year prior. In 2025, exports have continued to rise.

What could bring beef prices down?

The key to lower beef prices will be how the US and Brazil navigate their trade dispute.

For now, tariffs are keeping Brazil largely sidelined in the American beef market. Unless US–Brazil negotiations result in further tariff reductions, Australian beef demand from the US is likely to stay strong, keeping upward pressure on domestic prices. 

“If the US and Brazil come to a trade deal and the US can import more beef from Brazil, that will reduce how much demand they have for our beef and possibly lower the price of beef in your weekly shop,” Voznesenski said.