Why is the price of beef going up?

Australian households are feeling the strain as supermarket bills climb, but few price hikes at the shops can compare to the cost of beef.

“You may be wondering why the price of beef in my weekly shop is going up,” said CommBank Agribusiness Economist Dennis Voznesenski. “It’s not so much grounded in what’s happening in Australia. More so it’s what’s happening overseas and especially in America.

Export demand and global dynamics

“The US has a multi-decade low cattle herd and their import options are constrained,” said Voznesenski. “Not only are they struggling to get more beef from the North American market, but due to the trade war, they also can’t get enough beef from Brazil. Furthermore, despite the high prices, US consumers are eating more beef than ever before.

“There’s been a phenomenal amount of export demand for Australian beef and those purchasing beef locally have needed to compete with overseas demand. That’s why you’ve been seeing higher prices.

“Because Australia has an export-oriented agricultural industry, when export demand rises, it pushes local prices higher,” he added.

The silver lining

While higher prices at the checkout are tough for consumers, the price rise is supporting the Australian cattle industry.

In 2024 Australia became the second largest beef exporter in the world, according to Meat & Livestock Australia. The US became Australia’s largest beef export market, taking 29 per cent of total. Australian beef export volumes reached a total of 1.34 million tonnes, a 24% rise compared to the year prior. In 2025, exports have continued to rise.

“While US tariffs have also been put on us, in reality there’s been more severe tariffs put on others. Comparatively we have actually come out on top, at least for the time being,” Voznesenski said.

For producers, this global demand has helped offset some of the challenges posed by rising input costs and tough seasonal conditions at home, particularly in South Australia and Western Victoria. However, Voznesenski cautions the benefits may be temporary, depending on how international trade relationships evolve.

What would bring beef prices down?

Looking ahead, the key factor to watch is whether the US and Brazil resolve their trade dispute.

“If the US and Brazil come to a trade deal and the US can import more beef from Brazil, that will reduce how much demand they have for our beef and possibly lower the price of beef in your weekly shop,” Voznesenski said.