Video might have killed the radio star, but cinemas insist digital streamers will not spell the same fate for the Boxing Day film tradition.
Global box office totals in 2025 are expected to be well below pre-COVID levels, as more people choose on-demand viewing at home over a trip to the cinema.
A holiday habit that refuses to fade
“Boxing Day, and the whole period between Christmas and New Year, has historically always been a bumper time for film-going and for cinemas,” Swinburne University cinema and media expert Liam Burke said.
“In the last 10 years or so, the tradition and habit of going to the cinema has been eroded by streaming services and the pandemic really hastened that decline.”
Even so, Boxing Day releases have been somewhat insulated from the broader trend because people still want shared activities with family and friends, Dr Burke told AAP.
Cinemas lean on big releases and shared experiences
Cinema Nova boss Kristian Connelly, who has run his independent business for more than 20 years, said profits had risen over the past 12 months. He pointed to the success of the 2024 Boxing Day release of romantic comedy-drama Anora.
“Cinemas continue to find the Boxing Day releases and the window immediately after, which is traditionally New Year’s Day, easily among the most popular movie-going weeks of the year,” he said.
While streaming services have given people more choice at home, Mr Connelly said theatrical releases continued to perform well, even when the same films were also available on digital platforms.
“People want a third place — they want to be somewhere other than home and work,” he said.
Overall cinema attendance falls as streaming subscriptions rise
The share of Australians going to the cinema at least once a year fell from 68 per cent in 2019 to 59 per cent in 2024. Over the same period, the average number of visits per person dropped from 6.3 to 4.6 a year, according to Screen Australia.
At the same time, streaming services continue to grow. Technology analysts Telsyte estimate Australians spent more in 2025 to support multiple subscriptions.
Netflix led the market with 6.4 million subscriptions, up three per cent from 2024. Amazon Prime followed with 5.1 million subscriptions, up two per cent, while Disney+ reached 3.3 million subscribers, a six per cent increase.
Why cinemas still matter
Despite the rise of streaming, movie-going remains Australia’s most popular cultural activity, according to Cinema Association Australasia executive director Cameron Mitchell.
He said a strong 2026 release schedule, including new instalments in the Toy Story, Super Mario, Hunger Games and Avengers franchises, would deliver a bumper year for cinema operators.
More than 50 million cinema tickets were expected to be sold in 2025 as families continue to seek out a shared experience that cannot be replicated at home, Mr Mitchell said.
Younger audiences and the pull of the big screen
Dr Burke said studios have increasingly relied on large “tentpole” releases since the pandemic, such as big-budget action films and family musicals like Wicked.
Mid-budget films, including romantic comedies and dramas, have largely shifted to streaming platforms.
“This year, unless you want to see Zootopia or Avatar, there’s not the same wealth of options you would get on a streaming service,” he said.
Generation Alpha — children aged 14 and under — still crave the novelty of the cinema experience, Dr Burke added. He pointed to 2025 successes such as A Minecraft Movie, Taylor Swift’s concert films and KPop Demon Hunters.
“That communal experience, the opportunity to sing, laugh and cry together in this form remains somewhat unmatched, no matter how many streaming services you have at home,” he said.
