Wall Street higher as fresh data lifts US rate cut expectations

After a pause due to the government shutdown, new economic data has lifted markets' hopes of fresh US interest rate cuts.

By AAP & CBA Newsroom

4 December 2025

ASX board

Key points

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average ▲ 408.44 points, or 0.86%
  • S&P 500 ▲ 20.35 points, or 0.30%
  • Nasdaq Composite ▲ 40.42 points, or 0.17%

US stocks have closed higher as a flurry of economic data kept expectations elevated for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 408.44 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 47,882.90, the S&P 500 gained 20.35 points, or 0.30 per cent, to 6,849.72 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 40.42 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 23,454.09.

The tech sector finished 0.4 per cent lower, one of two S&P 500 sectors in the red. Energy, up 1.8 per cent, was the best performing sector, lifted in part by a rise in oil prices.

Fresh data lifts interest rate cut hopes

The record-long 43-day US government shutdown kept investors in the dark about official data and hampered the ability to gauge the Fed's likely path on interest rates. But the backlog is now being cleared along with data from non-governmental sources.

The Institute for Supply Management said US services activity was little changed in November. The reading comes ahead of the delayed personal consumption expenditures report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday.

Separately, the ADP National Employment Report showed US private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November. With official employment reports for October and November due only after the central bank's policy announcement, traders have placed more weight than usual on private-sector data.

Traders' expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at next week's Fed meeting inched up to 89 per cent after the data, up from around 87 per cent earlier in the day, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Investors also weighed a report that President Donald Trump's administration has abruptly cancelled interviews with finalists for the Fed chair role. This fuelled expectations that Kevin Hassett - seen as likely to favour aggressive interest rate cuts - will replace Jerome Powell next May.

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