Late-year rally keeps Wall Street steady after Christmas

US share markets have entered the final stretch of the year on a steady footing, as investors look beyond quiet post-holiday trading and focus on a seasonal window that has historically set the tone for the year ahead.

By AAP & CBA Newsroom

29 December 2025

The Wall Street sign in front of a decorated Christmas Tree and a US flag. Credit: AAP

Key points

  • The final trading days of the year are often seen as a signal for momentum in the year ahead
  • US shares are on track for double-digit gains in 2025, led by technology stocks
  • Trading volumes have dropped to about 10bn shares a day as the holiday slowdown continues

Wall Street finished little changed in light trading on Friday, rounding out a week of gains after a strong run earlier in the period. With few major economic updates and many investors still away for the holidays, markets showed little urgency to move sharply in either direction.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 slipped 2.05 points, or 0.03 per cent, to close at 6,930.00. The Nasdaq Composite fell 20.21 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 23,593.10, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 19.70 points, or 0.04 per cent, to 48,711.46.

Despite the flat finish, all three major indexes recorded weekly gains.

“We had a very strong five-day rally, so in a way we’re just simply catching our breath today after the holiday,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha.

“This is only day two of the official Santa Claus rally period, so we still have some time, and we think there’s going to be a little more upward bias going forward.”

What is the ‘Santa Claus rally period’ and why does it matter?

The rally period Detrick refers to spans the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new year. Historically, gains during this window have often been seen as a positive signal for market performance in the year ahead.

This year, the period began mid-week and runs through to 5 January, placing markets in a transitional phase where volumes are thin but expectations remain high.

Just three trading days remain in a volatile year that has tested investors with tariff concerns, ongoing geopolitical tensions and sharp swings driven by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence-linked stocks. Even so, all three major US indexes — led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq — are on track to post double-digit gains for the year.

“It’s a good reminder for investors that volatility is the toll we pay to get the solid gains we’ve seen in the last three years,” Detrick said.

“Odds are, 2026 is not going to be the first year in history with no volatility and no bad headlines. So you prepare yourself.”

Sector and stock moves

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, materials posted the strongest percentage gain on Friday, while consumer discretionary stocks lagged.

Over the year so far, communication services, technology and industrials have outperformed the broader market. Real estate is the only sector expected to finish 2025 in negative territory.

Nvidia rose 1.0 per cent after the AI chipmaker agreed to license chip technology from startup Groq and hire its chief executive. Target climbed 3.1 per cent after the Financial Times reported the retailer is facing pressure from hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management, which has taken a significant stake in the company.

US-listed precious metals miners including First Majestic, Coeur Mining and Endeavour Silver rose between 1.2 per cent and 3.0 per cent, as gold and silver prices reached fresh record highs.

Market breadth and volume

On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 1.13 to one. The exchange recorded 342 new highs and 66 new lows.

On the Nasdaq, declines were more common, with 1,968 stocks rising and 2,605 falling. The index logged 46 new highs and 166 new lows.

Trading volumes remained subdued, with about 10.22 billion shares changing hands across US exchanges. That was well below the 20-day average of 15.98 billion shares, reflecting the ongoing holiday slowdown.

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