Why 10 November matters
When US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last met in May, they reached limited trade agreements covering agriculture and aeroplanes.
But one of the biggest issues hanging over the US-China trade relationship was left unresolved.
China’s temporary suspension of additional export controls on rare earth minerals expires on 10 November, giving the two leaders seven weeks to deal with it when they meet in Washington on Thursday.
CommBank Geo-Economics Analyst Madison Cartwright said the May summit addressed rare-earth supply restrictions but did not extend the November deadline.
“The issue must therefore be addressed this week if the trade truce is to continue,” Cartwright said.
The deadline is a legacy of the sharp escalation in trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies in 2025.
Cartwright said China demonstrated its leverage during that period by imposing export controls on rare earth minerals. As the economic costs of the trade war grew, the two countries moved to de-escalate at a meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025, including through the temporary suspension of those additional controls.
Agreements reached in May this year covered goods hit hardest by the earlier trade war and were intended to normalise trade, although Cartwright noted trade between the US and China remains below 2024 levels.
What CBA expects to happen
Cartwright expects Trump and Xi to reach an agreement that keeps the trade truce going.
His central view is that the rare-earth issue will most likely be dealt with through another temporary extension of China's export controls.
But that doesn't mean the broader economic rivalry is going away.
CBA expects limited new concessions from either country, with the summit likely to leave much of the existing relationship unchanged.
“In our view, the US and China will agree to maintain stability in their relationship while still mutually pursuing decoupling,” Cartwright said.
Strategic competition between the two countries is expected to continue.
AI chips are also on the table
Technology restrictions are another area to watch.
Cartwright expects US controls on advanced artificial intelligence chips to be discussed, with the possibility of a minor concession such as relaxed licensing requirements for some chips already subject to restricted trade.
He does not expect the US to remove its restrictions.
“A deal on AI chips will likely not involve frontier AI chips, such as Nvidia B200s,” Cartwright said.
Taiwan remains the bigger strategic issue
Beyond trade, Cartwright describes Taiwan as the principal strategic fault line between the US and China.
He expects China to again push the US to strengthen its language against Taiwanese independence but does not expect Washington to agree.
A pending Taiwan arms package worth up to US$14 billion is also likely to be discussed.
Trump said after the May summit that arms sales had been discussed with Xi and later described the package as a negotiating chip.
Cartwright said Trump may be prepared to limit the size of the package but is unlikely to scrap it altogether.
“China will seek to leverage short-term economic concessions to pursue longer-term strategic objectives regarding Taiwan,” Cartwright said.
Where Iran fits into the talks
The war in Iran adds another issue to an already crowded agenda.
Cartwright said China's economic concerns about the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing. China is a heavy importer of Middle Eastern energy and the largest importer of Iranian oil.
Xi said at the BRICS summit on 12-13 September that China was willing to contribute to resolving the war.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi subsequently visited Beijing and held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who said China was prepared to play a “constructive role” and called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Cartwright said China is well placed to play a positive role in reaching an outcome but does not expect Beijing to publicly pressure either side or agree to US requests to increase pressure on Iran.
While the summit is an opportunity to make diplomatic progress on the war, a final resolution at the Trump-Xi summit is unlikely, he said.
