Let's set the scene for the bigger picture, both for the bank and its clients. What are the major shifts your clients are paying attention to and seeking guidance about?
At the highest level, our clients are operating in an environment where economic resilience has replaced predictability. Despite repeated shocks in 2025, global growth held up better than expected but volatility increased materially, driven by geopolitics, policy uncertainty and market repricing.
In this environment, planning has to be nimble and iterative. What our clients most value is help making decisions in a world that feels structurally different to the one we’ve all been used to.
Front of mind are inflation and interest rates. The momentum in consumer spending has come with a trade-off, and clients are very focused on what higher-for-longer rates mean for cash flow, funding structures and capital allocation. There’s a lot of thinking about where the pressure points are and how to stay flexible as capacity constraints start to bite.
This is where insights matter. With visibility over around 40% of Australian transactions, we can help clients interpret consumer spending patterns and understand how those shifts ripple through their businesses. This can give them both context and confidence, because a deep understanding of the environment can help leaders move forward with clarity.
Geopolitics remains a key theme. Clients are closely watching tensions between our key trading partners, whether it’s China, Europe or the US. Tariffs remain a key risk on the horizon, but the challenge is much broader than that. There’s a recognition that risk premiums are sticking around, and clients want guidance on how this will impact supply chains, pricing, trade relations and long-term allocation.
The world is also transitioning from AI expectations to AI impact. Globally and locally, we’re in an AI capex cycle, as data centres and energy infrastructure are rising quickly. Our economists recently said they are optimistic that AI will deliver a major boost to global productivity and potential growth of as much as 1% a year, but that productivity payoff depends on deep and widespread business transformation. Clients are seeking guidance on where to prioritise use cases, how to measure value, and how to manage risk, privacy and governance. That theme came up several times when I met with clients for AI roundtable discussions last year: the challenge isn’t “Should we invest?”, it’s “How do we invest responsibly and prove value?”.
“Globally and locally, we’re in an AI capex cycle, as data centres and energy infrastructure are rising quickly. Our economists recently said they are optimistic that AI will deliver a major boost to global productivity and potential growth of as much as 1% a year, but that productivity payoff depends on deep and widespread business transformation.”