Australian household spending eased back in April as volatile petrol prices and cautious spending in the recreation category reversed the lift seen in March, the latest CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) shows.
But the oil shock resulting from the current Middle East conflict has not had the size of impact that was initially expected, Commonwealth Bank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said.
"We have been expecting household spending to slow. But to date, weakness in sentiment due to the conflict in Iran and higher interest rates is not yet translating into a sharp pullback in discretionary spending,” Allen said.
Nevertheless, broad measures of spending showed some cooling in April.
CommBank data shows total household spending fell by 1.2 per cent over the month, with a sharp pullback of 12.1 per cent in transport as petrol prices dropped following the fuel excise tax on 1 April, as well as free public transport in Victoria and Tasmania.
Of the 12 spending categories, six recorded a fall and six recorded gains in April, including rare falls in insurance and health, with health recording the first monthly decline since March last year.
Even after stripping out transport, overall spending was still down 0.2 per cent in April, indicating a softer month for spending, following the 2.9 per cent lift recorded in March.
“Petrol price movements continue to have a big impact on the month-to-month swing in household spending, and we expect households to do much of the heavy lifting over coming months in slowing spending and cooling inflation,” Allen said.
"The April data was softer. But it's too early to judge whether this marks a broader trend,” Allen said. “The key will be seeing if some of the weakness in recreation spending is recycled into other categories or pushed into savings.”