Wages, jobs remain resilient in the face of inflationary pressures, CBA data shows

The latest CommBank Wage Insights series shows wages growth has continued to remain stable in 2026, reflecting an Australian labour market that’s holding steady in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. 

The series, which draws on de-identified salary data from around 400,000 CBA accounts, shows wages grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months to April 2026, with annual growth steady at 3.1 per cent.

CommBank Economist Harry Ottley said the stability of the data wasn’t surprising, with the effects of rising interest rates or the Middle East conflict yet to flow through to CBA’s wages growth data.

"CBA Wage Insights showed wages growth remained stable in April, consistent with the broader labour market: the trend unemployment rate has held at 4.3% since July 2025,” Ottley said. ​

"As wages growth typically lags labour market and economic conditions, it is not surprising that higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict have not yet flowed through our data. 

"While economic growth is expected to slow this year, current wages growth forecasts could still be surpassed. Workers could seek higher wages in response to inflation pressure.

“At the same time, remuneration agreed through enterprise bargaining agreements remains elevated and the Fair Work Commission is likely to deliver a bigger increase to minimum and award wages this year than it did in 2025.

“Any upward pressure should be evident in CBA Wage Insights before the official ABS data.”

South Australia leads the pack in wages growth 

By state, at 3.7 per cent South Australia recorded the fastest pace of wage growth, joining Western Australia in the top position for the first time since 2019. Wages growth in South Australia is responding to outperformance in the broader economy, with the unemployment rate the lowest in the country and economic growth the strongest. 

Western Australia maintained its highest or equal highest wages growth ranking in April, a position the state has held since late 2024. The state recorded wages growth of 3.7 per cent, a slight drop from March.

Wages in the Northern Territory have risen strongly in recent months, with growth the third highest in the country at 3.5 per cent. In New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, wages growth has been broadly stable in 2026, sitting at 3.2 per cent, 3.0 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively. Tasmania recorded the slowest wages growth at just 2.8 per cent.  

Broader measures of wage growth remain stable

CBA Wage Insights has also now examined a broader measure of wage growth to assess whether other indicators point to trends not captured in headline Wage Insights series, which is designed to emulate the ABS Wage Price Index. 

One such measure, Compensation of Employees (COE), reflects total wages paid across the economy. It does not adjust for changes in hours worked, bonuses or shifts in the composition of jobs. 

The COE measure has also remained relatively steady, but has edged higher since mid-2025. 

Ottley said the data supports the view that Australia’s labour market remains stable and has not yet shown a clear wage response to inflation. 

“This reinforces our assessment that the labour market is broadly stable, and still slightly tighter than what is considered full employment,” Ottley said. 

“We will continue to monitor the data closely over the coming months and quarters for any signs that wages begin to respond to inflation, particularly from an economy running above its speed limit and from the Middle East conflict.” 

Employment growth holds steady in April 

The CommBank Labour Insights series shows employment growth remains steady, with an estimated 23,000 jobs added in April, the same as March. 

Ottley said that while the data points to stable conditions, employment growth is a lagging indicator, with employment growth expected to soften through the second half of 2026. 

“The labour market remains resilient to higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict at this early stage,” Ottley said. 

“The unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and at this rate we still judge the labour market is on the tight side.​ 

“Employment growth is likely to slow this year as the broader economy weakness. ​ 

“Indeed, the RBA is relying on the labour market loosening to bring the economy into balance. There are no signs of this to date.”