Brisbane property market tipped to rebound early next year as buyer demand builds

Brisbane East leads recent growth

Brisbane East is leading the pack for owner-occupier purchases close to the central business district, Commonwealth Bank says, while further afield Logan–Beaudesert has seen a comparatively huge increase in similar purchases in recent years.

New lending data from Commonwealth Bank shows owner-occupier purchases in Brisbane East increased 17% from FY25 to FY26 while some other parts of Brisbane softened, including Brisbane South, down 3%, and Brisbane Inner City, down 2%.

Across Logan–Beaudesert, owner-occupier purchases increased 92% between FY21 and FY26, the strongest five-year increase across the nine Greater Brisbane areas included in the analysis.

Rebecca Markwell, General Manager Home Buying at Commonwealth Bank, said Greater Brisbane was a good example of how much variation can sit beneath the headline numbers for a major city.

“The different patterns across Brisbane show that owner-occupier activity can evolve quite differently from one part of the city to another, making the local picture increasingly important to understanding the broader market,” she said.

“The longer-term picture is particularly interesting because it shows some of these changes have been building over a number of years. Logan-Beaudesert’s growth in owner-occupier buying suggests areas outside Brisbane’s traditional core are playing an increasingly significant role in the broader metropolitan housing market.”

Buyers look further afield

Broadly across Queensland, young buyers have been increasingly active in recent years, with owner-occupier purchases by 20–29-year-olds up 67% between FY21 and FY26 compared to a 46% increase nationally.

Markwell said one of the most interesting shifts in Queensland was the growing role of buyers purchasing properties in outer-metro and regional areas beyond the state’s traditional population centres.

“This points to a home buying market that is opening to a broader mix of buyers across more parts of the state.

“Houses also account for a larger share of owner-occupier purchases in Queensland than they do nationally. Together, these trends suggest many buyers are looking further afield in search of affordable detached housing, which highlights the importance of delivering the right housing in the right locations to meet growing demand.”

Harcourts Inner East principal Chris Lawsen said he believed the Brisbane property market would start to recover from early next year, while the current market presented a good opportunity for buyers to step up.

Lawsen said the market had definitely cooled from its peak, while his area in the east had not really seen the price drops prevalent in other areas.

Housing market cools after strong gains

Queensland’s strong population growth has supported housing demand, with the state adding 582,000 people between the December quarter of 2019 and the December quarter of 2025. While population growth is moderating, housing construction remains comparatively strong. Queensland dwelling investment rose 16.8% over the year to the June quarter, while trend dwelling approvals increased 18.2% over the year to August.

Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics at Commonwealth Bank, said: “Queensland’s strong population growth has been an important driver of housing demand since the pandemic. Housing construction is responding, with the state leading the country for dwelling investment and recording strong growth in building approvals. However, the sharp rise in prices has reduced affordability and the housing market is now easing.”

Brisbane dwelling prices have roughly doubled since early 2020, but recent momentum has weakened. Prices fell 1.0% in August and 2.7% over the three months to August, with Commonwealth Bank expecting a peak-to-trough decline in Brisbane of about 8%.

In terms of demand, a recent report from property firm JLL said it expected the market across Brisbane to remain tight as the 2032 Olympics approached.

“Brisbane’s residential market will remain under sustained pressure due to strong net interstate and overseas migration against limited supply,” the report says.

“While a sizable pipeline of apartments is under construction and in planning, preparations for the 2032 Olympics are tightening the labour market and slowing residential construction. Any supply shortfall against strong demand will sustain elevated sale prices and rental growth over the medium term. Brisbane is likely to continue performing strongly in the near term.

“The more affordable areas of Logan-Beaudesert, and Ipswich, where housing supply continues to increase, remain the primary drivers of growth. The Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast are also recording strong population growth.”

Buyer demand tipped to return

Lawsen said the Brisbane East market was currently in a bit of a holding pattern, “but I have confidence that the start of next year will change”.

“I feel like the building up of buyers who haven’t been purchasing are still going to be there, and I feel like they’ll be entering the market again and that’ll provide an impetus, a bit more growth and a bit more competition for property. That’s my view.”

This article is part of The Home Front series supported by Commonwealth Bank and was first published by The Courier Mail.