Welcome to the new normal: 5 takeaways from CommBank's Global Markets Conference 2026

From AI and data centres to defence, energy and global bond markets, discussions at Commonwealth Bank’s Global Markets Conference in Sydney repeatedly returned to a larger investment cycle, more expensive capital and the physical limits of energy and infrastructure.

Here are five key takeaways from Day 1 of the conference.

1. A new investment cycle is taking shape

AI and data centres are the most visible part of the investment surge, but the spending extends well beyond technology.

CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman said the bank estimates Australia has about seven gigawatts of relatively firm data centre projects in the pipeline to 2035, representing about $150 billion of investment to 2030 and potentially $250 billion to $260 billion by 2035.

“These are big numbers. It’s starting to swamp the normal kind of investment that we see in our office market or in our industrial market,” Yeaman said.

That investment will sit alongside major spending on defence, transport and renewable energy.

Department of Defence Secretary Meghan Quinn said government also needed to build a pipeline of projects that could attract private capital.

2. Higher rates may be more normal than markets became used to

The neutral interest rate -the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity - featured repeatedly in discussions about where interest rates could settle over the longer term.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there was “reasonable evidence” both in Australia and particularly overseas that neutral rates were rising, with investment and the prospect of stronger productivity among the forces that could push them higher.

UniSuper Chief Investment Officer John Pearce offered a simpler description of the change.

“I think it’s normal for longer,” Pearce said, contrasting today’s bond yields with the period when trillions of dollars of bonds globally traded at negative yields.

“I think what we’ve got today is far more normal.”

3. Geopolitics is increasingly an investment story

Geopolitical risk is often associated with sudden market moves, but speakers argued its bigger impact may come through longer-term changes in how governments and companies invest.

BCA Macro-Geopolitical Chief Strategist Matt Gertken said AI and capital spending were becoming closely connected with geopolitical pressures.

“A lot of this capex is responding to these geopolitical conditions,” Gertken said, pointing to spending on military capability and renewable energy as countries respond to supply risks.

The defence discussion then brought that investment challenge back to Australia which is entering a more unpredictable era, requiring greater self-reliance while continuing to work closely with international partners.

The implications stretch across defence, energy security, supply chains and critical minerals.

4. Australia’s investment boom will need a lot more power

The East Coast electricity market is already changing rapidly, and the next wave of investment will add substantially to demand.

CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar said data centres are expected to account for about 27.5% of new East Coast electricity demand growth over the next decade, alongside electrification and electric vehicles.

“We are seeing a massive shift in demand expectations,” Dhar said.

That demand is arriving as major coal-fired power stations prepare to retire and renewable projects face higher construction and financing costs.

But the transition is also changing Australia’s exposure to global energy shocks. Dhar said the rapid rollout of batteries had reduced the influence of gas generation on electricity prices. Despite international LNG prices more than doubling following the Iran war, NSW baseload power futures remained below pre-war levels for much of the period.

“The resiliency that batteries have given this market ... has been very notable,” Dhar said.

5. Australia is attracting more global capital

Australia’s financial markets emerged as another relative strength.

Kent pointed to Australia’s fiscal position, regulatory framework and financial markets as factors supporting international interest.

“We are now an attractive place to issue, to raise funds,” Kent said. “That’s a really positive thing.”

World Bank Group Treasury Head of Investor Relations, Ratings and Sustainable Finance Heike Reichelt said the Australian dollar remained a strategically important funding market for the World Bank Group institutions issuing in the capital markets - the World Bank (IBRD), IDA, and IFC. The World Bank has been issuing in the market for four decades.

“We’ve noticed that the composition of investors has changed,” Reichelt said. “It’s become more diverse and international.”

That leaves Australia well placed to compete for global capital, but the conference discussions also pointed to the practical challenge ahead: making sure energy, infrastructure, skills and investable projects can keep pace with that capital.