Wages, jobs hold steady despite rising inflation, CBA data shows

The latest CommBank Wage Insights series shows wages growth remains in check as we head into a period of both higher inflation and rising inflation expectations. 

The series, which draws on de-identified salary data from around 400,000 CBA accounts, shows wages rose by 0.8 per cent over the three months to March 2026, with annual growth steady at 3.1 per cent.  

CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said wage growth appears to have found a new base, with CBA’s data yet to show any response to tightening labour conditions.

“The CBA Wage insights series continues to show wages growth is steady heading into a period of higher inflation and inflation expectations period due to the Middle East conflict,” Allen said. 

“The labour market remains on the tight side with the unemployment rate at 4.3 per cent according to ABS data. However, according to CBA data wages growth is finding a new base at around 3.1 per cent/yr, having hovered between 3.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent since mid-2025. 

“Our data is not yet showing any response to the tightening in labour market conditions through late 2025 and into early 2026. We are expecting some loosening in the labour market as economic growth slows in 2026.” 

Western Australia continues to outperform on wage growth 

Wage growth remained mixed across the states and territories in March. Western Australian retained its number one position for the 15th consecutive month, with wages rising 3.9 per cent through the year, up from 3.8 per cent in February.  

Wages in Victoria and Tasmania recorded the equal slowest wage growth in the country in March, with both states seeing a gradual softening in wages growth over recent months. Wages growth was steady in both NSW and the ACT at 3.2 per cent and 3.5 per cent per year. Queensland saw a slow acceleration in wages growth of 3.3 per cent per year in March, while South Australia recorded decent wages growth of 3.4 per cent.  

Employment growth points slightly higher in March 

The CommBank Labour Insights series shows employment remains resilient against the backdrop of rising interest rates and conflict in the Middle East, with an estimated 23,000 jobs added in March, a slight increase from February. 

The data indicates employment growth is finding a new baseline, after the strength demonstrated throughout 2024 and 2025.  

Allen said that while CBA data remains resilient, the unemployment rate is expected to increase from here. 

“In the third month of 2026, employment as shown by CBA data remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates and the Middle East conflict,” Allen said.  

“The unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and at this rate we still judge the labour market is on the tight side.  

“We do expect the unemployment rate to lift from here, but the exact extent is contingent on the prospects of the proposed cease fire and the level of oil and refined product prices we see moving forward.  

“Our internal data does not point to a shift in trend in either direction now for both employment and wages, reinforcing the relatively stable environment we are seeing in the CBA Wage and Labour Insights series.”