Renowned demographer Bernard Salt AM on what’s next for Gippsland

For generations, the economy of Gippsland in southeast Victoria has been fuelled by mining, power generation and farming, further bolstered by the tourist destinations of Phillip Island and Wilsons Promontory, among others. It’s also an attractive area for families seeking respite from the busy metropolis of Melbourne while still being an accessible commute to the CBD if on-site work is required.

“Gippsland has a bit of everything,” says demographer Bernard Salt. “It's got a sea-change aspect with the Bass Coast, Phillip Island and Mallacoota, plus a tree-change lifestyle too, which is effectively Baw Baw Shire and into the hills. In my view, Gippsland is better bang for your buck than Melbourne in terms of the amount of land and the quality of housing that you can get.”

The job market at a crossroads

Dominic Westendorf, General Manager, Regional and Agribusiness Banking, CommBank, believes Gippsland has the potential to become a leader in sustainable farming and agricultural innovation.

“Gippsland's agribusiness sector is uniquely positioned to support the region's economic transformation, especially if investment is channelled into innovative farming technologies and sustainable practices. At CommBank, we're committed to supporting local farmers as they continue to adapt, innovate, and grow,” says Westendorf.

Salt agrees, noting his analysis of the Australian Bureau of Statistics National State and territory population figures in June 2023, which he says shows the Gippsland suburbs of Drouin and Warragul in Baw Baw Shire are fast-growing towns in Australia.

“Over the last ten years, Warragul’s population has increased by 41% – it outpaces places like Busselton on the Gold Coast. The reason is simple. Warragul sits on the edge of Melbourne, and it has established industries like dairy and power generation, and well-established institutions like TAFE. It has a concentration of tradespeople. It's a tradie town – people just love it there.”

Regional promise

Drouin is the location of a proposed new hospital to meet the needs of the rapidly growing population. It was initially slated for completion by 2029; however, it is yet to receive the required funding from the state government.

“Gippsland has all the great attributes. It's a question of how it can be leveraged and taken to the next level,” says Salt.

“Gippsland has all the great attributes. It's a question of how it can be leveraged and taken to the next level.”
– Bernard Salt AM, Futurist

Navigating the energy transition

Upcoming shifts in Australia's resource landscape, driven by changing government policies and industry transitions, are raising concerns about long-term economic stability and employment opportunities in Gippsland. This turning point marks a significant juncture as the region adjusts to evolving national priorities in energy and resource management.

This places the job market in Gippsland at an important moment, with Salt emphasising that Gippsland needs to begin investing resources into pivoting its economy. Developing the right skills to manufacture and maintain the new forms of energy, such as wind and solar, will help Gippsland maintain its status as a thriving regional hub.

“Australia needs to get behind places like Gippsland to ensure that we don’t just import sophisticated equipment from overseas that we maintain. I want to see some ownership of the technology.”

“Australia needs to get behind places like Gippsland to ensure that we don’t just import sophisticated equipment from overseas that we maintain. I want to see some ownership of the technology.”
– Bernard Salt AM, Futurist

Doubling down on strengths

Salt believes that focusing on skills and training development that reinforces the area's natural advantages is the best way forward. Gippsland’s farming community could double down on agribusiness, such as developing centres of excellence in diesel mechanics and hydraulics.

“One of the major agribusinesses in Gippsland is dairy, and it has seen significant changes in techniques and machinery. There could be skills training around the manufacturing of the farm equipment and processing,” says Salt.

“If a region has a particular focus on industry, then the most sophisticated levels of skills and training should be evident in its local TAFE system. It needs to be at a competitive level because that shows confidence in the future and ensures that there is a pipeline of skills and labour available locally.”

“If a region has a particular focus on industry, then the most sophisticated levels of skills and training should be evident in its local TAFE system. It needs to be at a competitive level because that shows confidence in the future and ensures that there is a pipeline of skills and labour available locally.”
– Bernard Salt AM, Futurist

Other opportunities may be found in building and construction, as well as tapping into the rise of the ‘care and support economy.’

Salt says, “ In my view, the fastest growing job opportunities in Australia for the last decade has been for carers – whether it be aged care, disability care or childcare. An investment in health and wellbeing, and in the institutions that deliver it, is critical. You would expect them to be based in fast-growing communities like Warragul or Drouin.”

How to tackle the housing crisis

However, building up these newer industries will be impossible unless the housing shortage is addressed. According to a 2022 report by Cube Group, Gippsland represents 19% of the Victorian population. The region faces a significant housing stock shortage, with approximately 4,850 affordable homes needed to meet current demands.

The report notes that the workforce housing gap is a critical barrier to being able to meet the region’s economic development goals and delivering critical health and social services for local communities.

“The biggest issue is attracting skilled workers and delivering the housing,” says Salt. “And it's not just housing – it's housing to a modern standard, as skilled workers are often accompanied by their families. There needs to be two bathrooms, air conditioning and a modern kitchen.”

"The biggest issue is attracting skilled workers and delivering the housing,” says Salt. “And it's not just housing – it's housing to a modern standard, as skilled workers are often accompanied by their families."
– Bernard Salt AM, Futurist

Salt believes it may be necessary for local councils to step in and find solutions. This could include acquiring land and building housing that is tagged for essential workers to rent at affordable rates. A ‘build to rent’ project is underway in inner Sydney, where the cost of rent is prohibitively high for most essential workers.

Investment in training and workforce skills is also critical to realising this vision, and Westendorf highlights the importance of specialised education in supporting future growth.

“The future success of Gippsland’s agribusiness and business community relies heavily on developing local talent and specialised skills. Strategic investment in high-quality training facilities and programs will ensure the region not only retains its competitive edge but also attracts new opportunities and long-term prosperity,” Westendorf adds.

A united community vision

Beyond affordable housing, employment opportunities and infrastructure, another essential ingredient for Gippsland’s long-term success is a sense of community.

“When asked what makes a region successful, people typically say access to affordable housing and a GP. There's a checklist of certain things,” says Salt.

“However, while visiting regions that are either growing outrageously fast or in slow decline, the one thing I see that makes a difference is whether the community is united. The strongest asset is an enthusiastic, energetic and young community that wants to see the region prosper in the future.”

“You need to talk about Gippsland 2035 and Gippsland 2040. What is the Gippsland we are going to hand over to the next generation? You need to create a vision, and that requires leadership.”

Charting Gippsland’s future

Gippsland stands at a critical turning point. While the region faces significant challenges from the impending closure of Loy Yang Power Station and a pressing shortage of affordable housing, these hurdles also present opportunities to strategically reshape the local economy. For businesses, there’s a chance to contribute to and be part of Gippsland’s potential future growth and prosperity.

By leveraging its existing strengths – agribusiness, skilled trades, and tourism – and proactively investing in emerging sectors such as renewable energy, healthcare, and specialised training, Gippsland can secure its economic future.

Achieving this vision will require coordinated leadership, strategic planning, and genuine community engagement to ensure Gippsland remains not just resilient, but vibrant for generations to come.