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CommBank economists say the expected surplus in the 2022-23 Federal budget will help to moderate the inflation pulse running through the Australian economy. For 2023-24, lower inflation from the energy price relief is expected to be offset by increased government spending. Our inflation forecasts are unchanged. We expect to see a return to inflation within the 2% to 3% target range by mid-2024 together with slowing economic growth in the year ahead and higher unemployment.
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